Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 8.995593e-05 0.000107 0.000125 0.000145 0.000168 0.000192 0.000219
2025-01-05 6.758663e-05 0.000089 0.000114 0.000145 0.000180 0.000219 0.000265
2025-01-12 5.295547e-05 0.000076 0.000104 0.000139 0.000181 0.000230 0.000289
2025-01-19 4.431235e-05 0.000069 0.000100 0.000141 0.000191 0.000251 0.000325
2025-01-26 3.483222e-05 0.000059 0.000091 0.000134 0.000190 0.000256 0.000341
2025-02-02 2.988296e-05 0.000055 0.000089 0.000136 0.000198 0.000274 0.000372
2025-02-09 2.507201e-05 0.000050 0.000085 0.000135 0.000202 0.000286 0.000396
2025-02-16 2.260640e-05 0.000048 0.000085 0.000140 0.000214 0.000307 0.000431
2025-02-23 1.971739e-05 0.000045 0.000083 0.000141 0.000221 0.000323 0.000459
2025-03-02 1.553125e-05 0.000039 0.000077 0.000135 0.000218 0.000326 0.000471
2025-03-09 1.243931e-05 0.000034 0.000072 0.000131 0.000218 0.000331 0.000486
2025-03-16 1.035252e-05 0.000032 0.000069 0.000130 0.000221 0.000341 0.000507
2025-03-23 8.614057e-06 0.000029 0.000067 0.000132 0.000228 0.000359 0.000540
2025-03-30 6.692138e-06 0.000026 0.000064 0.000130 0.000232 0.000371 0.000567
2025-04-06 4.817297e-06 0.000022 0.000059 0.000126 0.000230 0.000376 0.000583
2025-04-13 3.882980e-06 0.000021 0.000058 0.000127 0.000237 0.000393 0.000616
2025-04-20 2.564217e-06 0.000017 0.000053 0.000121 0.000234 0.000394 0.000627
2025-04-27 2.019028e-06 0.000016 0.000052 0.000123 0.000241 0.000411 0.000659
2025-05-04 1.454785e-06 0.000014 0.000050 0.000122 0.000244 0.000422 0.000684
2025-05-11 1.231346e-06 0.000014 0.000050 0.000126 0.000255 0.000445 0.000725
2025-05-18 9.343685e-07 0.000013 0.000049 0.000127 0.000262 0.000461 0.000758
2025-05-25 5.099020e-07 0.000011 0.000045 0.000122 0.000258 0.000462 0.000768
2025-06-01 2.681102e-07 0.000009 0.000042 0.000119 0.000256 0.000466 0.000782